Speaker of the House Mike Johnson announced on Friday that Republicans plan to introduce a bill in Congress aimed at preventing what he claims is a “threat of fraud” related to noncitizens voting. However, available data and studies indicate that there is no evidence of such a problem that needs to be addressed.
During his appearance at Mar-a-Lago, Johnson stood alongside former President Donald Trump and made claims about past fraud committed by undocumented immigrants. However, he failed to provide any evidence to support these allegations. Instead, he emphasized the urgency of addressing the issue before it potentially becomes widespread.
According to experts interviewed by USA TODAY, claims of noncitizens influencing elections are unfounded and, at their worst, xenophobic falsehoods that undermine public confidence in the integrity of the electoral system.
According to Michael Waldman, the president and CEO of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, a nonpartisan good-government group, the notion that unidentified and unfamiliar individuals who appear distinct from others are participating in voting and casting ballots is simply false. He dismisses this idea as a scare tactic used to mislead people.
In 2016, Trump won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. He made an unsupported claim that he would have won the popular vote if millions of people who voted illegally were deducted. These false claims of voter fraud were also used as the basis for his refusal to accept his defeat in the 2020 election. This ultimately led to the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
Noncitizen voting is virtually nonexistent
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Federal law already prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections. A minuscule number of noncitizens have accidentally cast ballots, and their votes were insufficient to impact the outcome of any race.
According to a study conducted by the Brennan Center in 2017, only two out of 42 jurisdictions examined had instances of improper noncitizen voting. These cases amounted to just 30 out of over 23 million votes cast, which accounted for a mere 0.0001% of the total votes in those areas.
According to William Adler, associate director of the elections project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, there have been very few instances of noncitizens attempting to vote in a federal election. Although the number of cases is not zero, it is relatively insignificant when compared to the overall number of votes cast.
According to the Brennan Center study, Virginia, New Hampshire, and California were three states where President Trump claimed there was “serious voter fraud” in 2016. However, the study found that no elections administrators in those states identified any incidents of noncitizen voting during that time.
In 2017, a permanent resident and mother of four in Texas was prosecuted for voting illegally and subsequently sentenced to eight years in prison. The woman had immigrated to the U.S. as an infant, and her lawyer revealed to the New York Times that she was unaware of her ineligibility to vote.
According to Adler, most of these cases typically involve individuals who genuinely believed that they had the right to vote. This highlights the importance of improving voter outreach and education to enhance understanding of the elections process.
Growing concern about noncitizen voting
The National Voter Registration Act mandates that individuals who register to vote must declare, under the threat of perjury, their eligibility to vote. This requirement is in addition to the federal law that prohibits noncitizens from casting votes.
Johnson is introducing a new legislation that would mandate individuals in the United States to present proof of their citizenship during voter registration. Moreover, the proposal also entails that states should be obligated to eliminate noncitizens from their voter rolls. It is worth noting that there already exists a federal law that outlines the procedure states must follow to ensure the cleanliness of their voter rolls.
According to Johnson, the country has a significant number of undocumented immigrants. He believes that even if only 1 out of 100 of them were to vote, it could potentially result in hundreds of thousands of votes in an election. This has the potential to sway the outcome of not only congressional races but also presidential elections, particularly if there are enough votes.
Several liberal cities have made the decision to permit noncitizens to vote in local elections, although this privilege does not extend to state or federal elections.
Helen Brewer, an expert in policy from the National Conference of State Legislatures, pointed out that no state constitution permits noncitizens to vote in either state or federal elections. In fact, seven states, including key swing states like Arizona and Colorado, have specifically prohibited noncitizen voting.
In the upcoming November elections, the number of states seeking to amend their constitutions to prohibit noncitizen voting could potentially increase. According to Brewer, four states, namely Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, and Wisconsin, will have ballot measures on this issue. It is worth noting that Wisconsin holds particular significance as a battleground state that President Trump won in 2016, but President Biden was able to reclaim in 2020.
The Great Replacement theory
Some people have made claims about noncitizen voting that are reminiscent of the white supremacist theory known as the Great Replacement. This theory attributes the country’s demographic changes to Jews and has been linked to mass shootings in Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Republicans across the nation have echoed a version of this theory, accusing Democrats of bringing in voters to secure election victories.
Johnson stated on Friday that the increase in immigration under Democratic leadership is part of their agenda to convert these individuals into voters. He did not substantiate this claim with evidence, but mentioned that social services agencies frequently assist individuals in the voter registration process.
According to a news release by Secretary of State Jane Nelson, voter registrations in Texas, the state with the longest border with Mexico, have decreased. As of April 3, this year has seen just under 58,000 new registrations, compared to 65,000 during the same period in 2022 and 104,000 in the same period in 2020.
Cleta Mitchell, a lawyer who participated in Trump’s widely-discussed phone call in 2020, where he pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to uncover votes in order to secure the election victory, has launched the Election Integrity Network. Through this new initiative, Mitchell asserts that noncitizens are participating in voting. Despite Trump’s plea, Raffensperger declined to comply with his request.
In January, Raffensperger expressed his opinion on the conspiracy theory surrounding the 2020 election in an article for National Review. He criticized the repetitive and tiresome nature of the unfounded claim that the election was stolen from President Trump, citing voting-machine irregularities, foreign intervention, or outright fraud.
During an interview with a conservative radio host in February, Mitchell expressed her belief that the country was facing an invasion of aliens from the southern border. She raised concerns about the lack of knowledge regarding the identity of these individuals, asserting that they were not citizens and yet being registered to vote. However, Mitchell did not provide any evidence to support her claims.
Secretaries of state ‘not aware’ of noncitizen voting
The Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization, maintains a comprehensive database of voter fraud cases throughout the United States. According to their records, there have been 21 instances of ineligible voting, including individuals who either registered to vote or cast their ballots despite not being citizens. It is important to note that the Heritage Foundation acknowledges that their database may not include all cases of voter fraud.
However, secretaries of state from both political parties, who are responsible for overseeing elections, have strongly refuted allegations of widespread election fraud and noncitizen voting.
According to the National Association of Secretaries of State in 2017, its members were not aware of any evidence supporting the voter fraud claims made by President Trump.
According to Michon Lindstrom, spokesperson for Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams, Kentucky has a proposed amendment in the upcoming November ballot to ban noncitizen voting. Lindstrom stated that noncitizens are currently not allowed to vote in Kentucky, and there have been no reported cases of noncitizens voting in the state.
Speaker Mike Johnson’s claim that noncitizen voting is a ‘threat’ is contradicted by the facts.
