A sign in Grand Haven, Ottawa County, once displayed the motto “You Belong Here.” However, the recently elected GOP-majority board decided to replace it with the phrase “Let Freedom Ring.”
According to a Stateline analysis, in recent years, millions of individuals in the United States have made a significant shift from Democratic cities to Republican suburbs. This migration pattern has added complexity to the political landscape of swing states during a crucial election year.
Republican suburban counties in four swing states — Georgia in the South and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Midwest — experienced the highest influx of new residents. On the other hand, heavily Democratic cities faced the largest population losses. In Western swing states like Arizona and Nevada, slightly Democratic cities that are anticipated to be closely contested have attracted the most people.
According to an analysis conducted by Stateline using U.S. Census Bureau estimates and county presidential election data from the University of Michigan, there has been a significant shift in population trends across the nation. In Republican counties, defined by the 2020 presidential vote, there has been a net influx of 3.7 million people since 2020. On the other hand, Democratic counties have experienced a net loss of 3.7 million individuals. These findings highlight the contrasting migration patterns between these two political groups.
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released estimates in March that accounted for individuals who relocated within the country between mid-2020 and mid-2023. This period was marked by the disruptions caused by the pandemic, with lockdowns in major cities and the increasing prevalence of remote work, which prompted many people to search for affordable housing in less populated and picturesque areas. Interestingly, these areas also tend to lean towards more conservative ideologies. It is important to note that the census figures do not incorporate data on births or immigration.
It is still uncertain whether the newcomers will vote Democratic this year or if they will be disenchanted with Democratic policies in their previous places of residence and opt to vote Republican. These changes could have a significant impact on local and congressional races, and even a small number of individuals moving across state lines could potentially influence the outcome of presidential vote totals in swing states.
David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, who has edited and contributed to numerous books on presidential swing states, emphasizes the significant influence that a few thousand votes can have on the outcome of the election. With the electoral vote in each state being determined by a small number of individuals, the impact of just a few thousand votes in any given state cannot be underestimated.
Forsyth County in Georgia, Ottawa County in Michigan, Cumberland County in Pennsylvania, and Waukesha County in Wisconsin saw the highest influx of movers. These counties were strongholds for then-incumbent President Donald Trump in the 2020 elections. Interestingly, Joe Biden performed exceptionally well in the three Midwest counties, marking the strongest Democratic showing since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Politics in a changing county
This Article Includes
Tensions have arisen in certain growing counties as new residents bring their own set of expectations.
David Avant, a resident of Forsyth County, Georgia, shares an interesting observation about the influx of people in the area. He says, “People keep moving here because they like it, then they try to make it like the place they left.” The county has seen approximately 17,000 new arrivals between mid-2020 and mid-2023, according to the Stateline analysis.
In certain red counties surveyed, politics may not be undergoing significant changes. For instance, in Michigan, Doug Zylstra made history in 2018 by becoming the first Democrat elected to the 11-member Ottawa County Board of Commissioners in nearly half a century. His reelection in 2022 was a testament to his success. However, in 2023, when a new majority took office, the commission shifted towards a more conservative stance.
Sylvia Rhodea, one of the newly elected Republicans on the commission, expressed that the residents of Ottawa County made a deliberate choice to replace the previous Republican-majority board, which had been promoting Democratic ideology and practices.
During a meeting in January 2023, Rhodea expressed her disapproval of the previous board’s diversity, equity, and inclusion program. She criticized it for suggesting that the county’s demographic, which consisted of 90% white and predominantly conservative residents, was a problem for businesses. Rhodea also claimed that the program aimed to replace the American principle of equality with the Marxist concept of equity.
Rhodea, during the meeting, emphasized that the divide in Ottawa County is not based on race, but rather on ideology. While she acknowledged the continued commitment to welcoming people, she firmly advocated for an end to the divisive ideology that is prevalent within the community.
The Rev. James Ellis III, an African-American resident who relocated to Ottawa County in April 2023, resides in the district that elected the county’s only Democrat. He finds the statement about a “racial divide” to be inaccurate and unhelpful. While he does not align himself with any political party, he believes that individuals from all perspectives struggle to truly listen to one another.
Ellis was raised in Maryland and has had the opportunity to live in various cities, such as Washington, D.C., and British Columbia, Canada. During his time in Ottawa County, he attended a local seminary.
According to Ellis, a member of Maplewood Reformed Church, Ottawa County is not a perfect place. It is home to many amazing citizens, offers lakeside living, and is known for winter sports. However, like any other place, it also has its share of power dynamics and inequalities that need to be addressed. With a population that is approximately 83% white, the county is witnessing a small but noticeable growth in its Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations.
Ottawa County Commissioner Doug Zylstra speaking at the Ottawa County Board of Commissioners meeting on July 25, 2023. | Photo by Anna Gustafson
‘They vote for the same thing’
In Wisconsin, Waukesha County, known for its affluence and suburban lifestyle, has seen an influx of approximately 5,200 new residents. On the other hand, neighboring Milwaukee County, with its vibrant urban environment, has experienced a significant decline of 37,000 residents. However, despite these demographic shifts, political dynamics in both counties are expected to remain largely unchanged in the near future. Steve Styza, a Republican candidate, emerged victorious in the recent election for an open seat on the Waukesha County Board of Supervisors, offering insight into the local political landscape.
“Before the election, Styza noted that Democrats are making a strong effort to convert the traditionally conservative counties in our state into blue or purple and establish a political presence. He also acknowledged that if he were in their position, he would be doing the same.”
In the 2020 election, Trump received nearly 60% of the vote in Waukesha County, making it a stronghold for the Republican party. However, Biden’s vote share of approximately 38.8% was the highest for a Democrat since 1964. Moving forward to the 2022 election, Democratic Governor Tony Evers garnered slightly more support from the county, with a vote share of 39.4%. On the other hand, Milwaukee County heavily favored Biden, with 69% of the vote in 2020 and a slightly higher percentage of 71% for Evers in 2022.
Styza mentioned that, similar to the situation in Georgia with Avant, Democratic newcomers occasionally present a challenge to the suburban way of life that initially attracted them.
According to Styza, many people express their desire to leave a certain place due to unfavorable circumstances. However, they often end up voting for similar conditions in a different location, only to be surprised by the negative outcomes that follow.
In the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, the political landscape is quite similar, although the major cities continue to experience rapid growth. Maricopa County in Arizona, which is home to Phoenix, made history in 2020 by voting Democratic for the first time since 1948, when Harry Truman won the county.
In Nevada, Clark County, which is famously known for being home to Las Vegas, has consistently favored Democratic candidates for president since 1992. However, there has been a noticeable increase in Republican support since 2008, with Trump receiving 44% of the county’s vote in 2020. According to David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, this surge in Republican strength could be attributed to individuals moving from the conservative inland region east of Los Angeles in California.
According to political scientist Damore, Reno has been experiencing a shift towards more Democratic voters in recent election cycles. This can be attributed to the influx of liberal Californians from Sacramento and the Bay Area. Damore further explains that while the Democrats may have lost vote share in Las Vegas, they have made up for it by gaining support in Reno.
According to conservative scholars, residential moves from blue to red areas indicate a political preference or a genuine attraction towards the outcomes of conservative policies.
According to an analysis of state-by-state moving statistics published in City Journal in January, Jeffrey Anderson, the president of the conservative nonprofit American Main Street Initiative, pointed out that Americans consistently demonstrate a preference for state governments that prioritize individual freedom over imposing mandates and lockdowns. Anderson observed that rather than migrating to states with strict regulations, people are actively choosing to move to states that prioritize securing the mandates of liberty.
Some demographers view the migration of individuals as a quest for housing and employment opportunities, disregarding the influence of politics.
According to William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution, domestic migration is primarily influenced by labor market and housing conditions, rather than politics. He suggests that individuals moving from blue states to red states could potentially impact the political landscape of their destination states, citing Arizona and Nevada as notable examples.
Stateline, a division of States Newsroom, operates as a nonprofit news network with funding from grants and a group of donors who support its mission as a 501c(3) public charity. Editorial independence is maintained by Stateline. For any inquiries, please reach out to Editor Scott S. Greenberger at [email protected]. Stay updated with the latest news and articles from Stateline by following us on Facebook and Twitter.
